Wall Street Week Ahead: Attention turns to financial earnings

NEW YORK (Reuters) - After over a month of watching Capitol Hill and Pennsylvania Avenue, Wall Street can get back to what it knows best: Wall Street.

The first full week of earnings season is dominated by the financial sector - big investment banks and commercial banks - just as retail investors, free from the "fiscal cliff" worries, have started to get back into the markets.

Equities have risen in the new year, rallying after the initial resolution of the fiscal cliff in Washington on January 2. The S&P 500 on Friday closed its second straight week of gains, leaving it just fractionally off a five-year closing high hit on Thursday.

An array of financial companies - including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase - will report on Wednesday. Bank of America and Citigroup will join on Thursday.

"The banks have a read on the economy, on the health of consumers, on the health of demand," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

"What we're looking for is demand. Demand from small business owners, from consumers."

EARNINGS AND ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS

Investors were greeted with a slightly better-than-anticipated first week of earnings, but expectations were low and just a few companies reported results.

Fourth quarter earnings and revenues for S&P 500 companies are both expected to have grown by 1.9 percent in the past quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Few large corporations have reported, with Wells Fargo the first bank out of the gate on Friday, posting a record profit. The bank, however, made fewer mortgage loans than in the third quarter and its shares were down 0.8 percent for the day.

The KBW bank index <.bkx>, a gauge of U.S. bank stocks, is up about 30 percent from a low hit in June, rising in six of the last eight months, including January.

Investors will continue to watch earnings on Friday, as General Electric will round out the week after Intel's report on Thursday.

HOUSING, INDUSTRIAL DATA ON TAP

Next week will also feature the release of a wide range of economic data.

Tuesday will see the release of retail sales numbers and the Empire State manufacturing index, followed by CPI data on Wednesday.

Investors and analysts will also focus on the housing starts numbers and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve factory activity index on Thursday. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers are due on Friday.

Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, said he expected to see housing numbers continue to climb.

"They won't be that surprising if they're good, they'll be rather eye-catching if they're not good," he said. "The underlying drive of the markets, I think, is economic data. That's been the catalyst."

POLITICAL ANXIETY

Worries about the protracted fiscal cliff negotiations drove the markets in the weeks before the ultimate January 2 resolution, but fear of the debt ceiling fight has yet to command investors' attention to the same extent.

The agreement was likely part of the reason for a rebound in flows to stocks. U.S.-based stock mutual funds gained $7.53 billion after the cliff resolution in the week ending January 9, the most in a week since May 2001, according to Thomson Reuters' Lipper.

Markets are unlikely to move on debt ceiling news unless prominent lawmakers signal that they are taking a surprising position in the debate.

The deal in Washington to avert the cliff set up another debt battle, which will play out in coming months alongside spending debates. But this alarm has been sounded before.

"The market will turn the corner on it when the debate heats up," Prudential Financial's Krosby said.

The CBOE Volatility index <.vix> a gauge of traders' anxiety, is off more than 25 percent so far this month and it recently hit its lowest since June 2007, before the recession began.

"The market doesn't react to the same news twice. It will have to be more brutal than the fiscal cliff," Krosby said. "The market has been conditioned that, at the end, they come up with an agreement."

(Reporting by Gabriel Debenedetti; editing by Rodrigo Campos)

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Russia Says It Supports U.N. Envoy for Syria

George Ourfalian/Reuters

Syrian soldiers loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Saturday.

MOSCOW (Reuters) — Russia voiced support on Saturday for Lakhdar Brahimi, the special Syria envoy from the United Nations and the Arab League, but insisted that the exit of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, could not be a precondition for a deal to end the country’s conflict.

A Foreign Ministry statement after talks in Geneva on Friday with the United States and Mr. Brahimi, who the Syrian government has said is “flagrantly biased,” reiterated calls for an end to the violence in Syria, where more than 60,000 people have been killed since March 2011.

At the meeting with Mr. Brahimi and an American deputy secretary of state, William J. Burns, a Russian deputy foreign minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, “expressed unfailing support for Brahimi’s mission as the U.N.-Arab League special envoy on Syria,” the statement said.

The issue of Mr. Assad — who the United States, European powers and gulf-led Arab states say must step down to end what has escalated into a civil war — appeared to be a sticking point at the meeting.

“As before, we firmly uphold the thesis that questions about Syria’s future must be decided by the Syrians themselves,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said, “without interference from outside or the imposition of prepared recipes for development.”

Russia has been Mr. Assad’s most powerful international supporter during the nearly 22-month conflict, joining with China to block three Western- and Arab-backed United Nations Security Council resolutions intended to pressure him or push him from power.

In Geneva, Russia called for “a political transition process” based on an agreement by foreign powers last June.

Mr. Brahimi, who is trying to build on the agreement reached in Geneva on June 30, has met three times since early December with senior Russian and American diplomats, and he met Mr. Assad in Damascus.

Russia and the United States disagreed over what the June agreement meant for Mr. Assad, with Washington saying it sent a clear signal that he must go and Russia contending it did not.

In Washington, a spokeswoman for the State Department, Victoria Nuland, said there had been some progress toward a common view at Friday’s meeting, but she did not provide details.

Moscow says it is not propping up Mr. Assad and, as rebels gain ground in the war, it has given indications it is preparing for his possible exit. But it continues to insist he must not be forced out by foreign powers.

Analysts say President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia wants to prevent the United States from using military force or support from the Security Council to bring down governments it opposes.

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Microsoft may have exited gadget show prematurely

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Microsoft may have relinquished its starring role in America’s gaudiest gadget show a year too early.

After 13 straight years in the spotlight, Microsoft’s decision to scale back its presence at this week’s International CES deprived the software maker of a prime opportunity to explain and promote a new generation of redesigned computers running its radically remade Windows operating system.

The missed chance comes at a time when Microsoft Corp. could use a bully pulpit to counter perceptions that Windows 8 isn’t compelling enough to turn the technological tide away from smartphones and tablets running software made by Apple Inc. and Google Inc.

“They needed to be at this show in a very big way to show the progress they have made and what is it about 2013 that is going to make consumers really gravitate toward a Windows 8 machine,” said technology industry analyst Patrick Moorhead.

Since Windows 8 went on sale in late October, there has been little evidence to suggest the operating system will lift the personal computer industry out of a deepening downturn. Worldwide PC shipments during the final three months of last year dropped 6 percent from the same period in 2011, according to the research firm International Data Corp. The dip occurred despite the bevy of Windows 8 laptops and desktop machines that were on sale during the holiday shopping season.

Microsoft, though, insists things worked out at just fine during CES, even though it didn’t have a booth and only had a smattering of executives at the sprawling trade show, which drew some 156,000 people to Las Vegas.

The company, which is based in Redmond, Wash., decided it no longer makes sense to invest as much time and money in CES as it once did. The company says the show’s early January slot doesn’t mesh with the timing of its major product releases. Windows 8, for instance, was still more than nine months away from hitting the market when Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer kicked off last year’s CES with a keynote address that was billed as the company’s swan song at the show.

“We are very comfortable with our decision,” Microsoft spokesman Frank Shaw said. “It has been a productive show for us this year.”

Microsoft’s retreat from CES puzzled some attendees curious about Windows 8. For instance, when Michael Sullivan showed up at computer maker Asus’ booth, which was stocked with Windows 8 computers, there was no one around to discuss the machines or the software.

“This is unusual,” said Sullivan, CEO of computer sales firm Spec 4 International Inc. “I don’t understand why a successful company isn’t bringing executives here.”

Asus invited some CES attendees to learn more about Windows 8 at a nearby hotel, away from the show’s main trade show. Asus has left its booth unmanned in previous years at CES, but the void wasn’t as noticeable when Microsoft’s own representatives were canvassing the floor.

NPD DisplaySearch analyst Richard Shim thought Microsoft should have had more people helping to staff its partners’ booths because, he said, no one understands how Windows 8 works better than the company that made it.

“Whenever you have a new product rolling out, it’s always helpful to communicate your message directly as opposed to counting on your partners,” Shim said.

Microsoft elected to curtail its CES presence largely because the show’s marketing value has diminished. In recent years, companies such as Apple and Google have shown that they can command more attention by holding their own exclusive events to unveil products just before they go on sale. Neither Apple nor Google had a major presence at CES.

In a sign that it is embracing its rivals’ strategy, Microsoft staged separate events last year in Los Angeles and New York to unveil Surface, a Windows-powered tablet computer, and Windows 8.

Nevertheless, both Shim and Moorhead believe would have been better off waiting until after this year’s CES to surrender its top billing on the marquee. That way, Ballmer could have used this year’s opening CES keynote to talk about Windows 8′s advantages as a finished product.

“Ballmer could have talked about the operating system more completely and built more hype around it, especially since Microsoft has been getting beaten up so far over Windows 8′s performance,” Shim said.

When Ballmer ended Microsoft’s 13-year streak of kicking off CES, he was only able to provide a peek at a makeover of the operating system that was still months away from being completed.

Microsoft touts Windows 8 as a breakthrough that will enable people to straddle the divide between personal computers and tablets. The revamped operating system is built to respond to the touch of a finger so it can work on tablet computers while still retaining the ability to respond to commands from keyboards and mice on laptop and desktop machines. To take advantage of Windows 8′s versatility, many PC makers are building convertible devices that can work as a tablet or a laptop.

But reviews of the new operating system have been lukewarm. Critics have been panning it as too confusing and cumbersome.

Microsoft used part of a CES technology forum presented by J.P. Morgan to try to build more enthusiasm. The company revealed that 60 million copies of Windows 8 have been sold so far, putting it on the same pace as the previous version — Windows 7 — at the same juncture of its release. But it’s unclear how many of those Windows 8 licenses are installed on computers that are still sitting in stores or warehouses.

Investors have been so unimpressed with the reception to the new Windows products that Microsoft’s stock price has slipped 4 percent since the operating system’s Oct. 26 release. Meanwhile, the bellwether Standard & Poor’s 500 index has gained 4 percent. Microsoft’s stock closed Friday at $ 26.83, up 37 cents.

A clearer picture of the early reception to Windows 8 may emerge Jan. 24 when Microsoft is scheduled to report its earnings for the three months spanning the holiday shopping season.

Although he wasn’t the main attraction, Ballmer made a cameo appearance during Qualcomm Inc. CEO Paul Jacobs’ opening address at this year’s show.

Ballmer’s acceptance of Qualcomm’s invitation to join Jacobs on stage surprised some people because Qualcomm has emerged as a threat to Intel Corp., a longtime Microsoft ally that makes most of the processors in Windows computers. Instead of touting Windows 8, Ballmer spent his time hailing a streamlined version of the operating system, dubbed Windows RT, which runs on tablets using processors that rely on technology designed by ARM, another Intel rival.

Microsoft’s top executive in charge of technical strategy appeared on stage at Samsung Electronics’ invitation to reveal a Windows phone featuring a flexible color display. The electronics of the phone are in a little box, and the thin, bendable screen is attached to it, looking much like a piece of paper.

That left Intel and other Microsoft partners, including PC makers Samsung, Sony, Asus, Acer and Hewlett-Packard Co., to do most of the boasting about Windows 8 at their own CES booths.

“Our partners are doing that very effectively,” Shaw said. “You couldn’t walk through the (CES) floor without seeing people doing really interesting things with Windows 8.”

But there were other times when it appeared Microsoft’s partners could have used some help.

Sony exhibitor John Guzman, for instance, seemed stumped when an Associated Press reporter visited the company’s CES booth and asked whether a machine running Windows 8 or the more advanced Windows 8 Pro would be a better fit for journalistic work.

“That is more of a Microsoft question,” Guzman said, adding that no Microsoft representatives were around.

___

Liedtke reported from San Francisco. AP Technology Writer Peter Svensson contributed to this story.

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Ben Affleck Wins Critics Choice Best Director, Thanks the Academy That Snubbed Him

By Paul Chi and Melody Chiu

01/11/2013 at 12:50 PM EST

Take that, Academy!

Hours after Ben Affleck was snubbed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which did not give him a Best Director nomination for his film Argo, he won in the same category at Thursday night's 18th Annual Critics Choice Movie Awards in Santa Monica.

"I'd like to thank the Academy," joked Affleck, 40, while on stage to collect his hardware. "I'm kidding, I'm kidding! This is the one that counts."

Affleck's victory was greeted by thunderous applause and a standing ovation from the crowd. His absence from the field of Best Director Oscar nominees was considered one of the biggest shocks when the nominations were announced Thursday morning. Meanwhile, Argo was nominated for a Best Picture Oscar.

"It actually is very, very cool for me," Affleck said while accepting his Critics Choice Award. "There was a time where the Ben Affleck Critics Award was a Saturday Night Live sketch, so this is a very, very cool and exciting thing."

Affleck, who attended the show without wife Jennifer Garner, went on to thank his family by saying, "My daughter wrote my name on my hand for luck. I don't know how that works, but I guess it worked," he said. "I want to thank my kids and I want to thank my wife, without whom I would not be anywhere, much less here."

When Affleck returned to his table, George Clooney – a producer on Argo – greeted him with a congratulatory hug and smile, while fellow nominee David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) offered his congrats by rubbing Affleck's back.

Argo also was named best picture at the Critics Choice Awards.

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Flu more widespread in US; eases off in some areas

NEW YORK (AP) — Flu is more widespread across the nation, but the number of hard-hit states has declined, health officials said Friday.

Flu season started early this winter, and includes a strain that tends to make people sicker. Health officials have forecast a potentially bad flu season, following last year's unusually mild one.

The latest numbers, however, hint that the flu season may already have peaked in some spots.

Flu was widespread in 47 states last week, up from 41 the week before, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday. Many cases may be mild. The only states without widespread flu are California, Mississippi and Hawaii

The hardest hit states dropped to 24 from 29. Those are states where large numbers of people have been treated for flu-like illness.

Those with less activity include Florida, Arkansas and South Carolina in South, the first region hit in the current flu season.

Nationally, 20 children have died from the flu. There is no running tally of adult deaths, but the CDC estimates that the flu kills about 24,000 people in an average year.

Flu vaccinations are recommended for everyone 6 months or older. Health officials are still recommending vaccinations, even in areas with widespread flu reports.

Nearly 130 million doses of flu vaccine were distributed this year, and at least 112 million have been used, according to CDC officials.

Vaccine is still available, but supplies may have run low in some locations, health officials say.

Also on Friday, CDC officials said a recent study of more than 1,100 people has concluded the current flu vaccine is 62 percent effective. That's in line with how effective the vaccine has been in other years.

The flu vaccine is reformulated each year, and officials say this year's version is a good match to the viruses going around.

Flu usually peaks in midwinter. Symptoms can include fever, cough, runny nose, head and body aches and fatigue. Some people also suffer vomiting and diarrhea, and some develop pneumonia or other severe complications.

Most people with flu have a mild illness. But people with severe symptoms should see a doctor. They may be given antiviral drugs or other medications to ease symptoms.

___

Online:

CDC flu: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/index.htm

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Wall Street slips, weighed by Wells Fargo, banks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks dipped on Friday, weighed by losses in the banking sector, after Wells Fargo & Co reported a decline in net interest margin despite a record profit in the latest quarter.

"It (Wells Fargo results) is weighing on the sector. We are keeping our fingers crossed that this won't be a sector thing and more confined to Wells Fargo, but it's definitely playing a factor today," said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Cabrera Capital Markets LLC in Boston.

Wells Fargo, the fourth-biggest U.S. bank and the nation's largest home lender, said its fourth-quarter net interest margin - a key measure of how much money banks make from loans - fell, even as profit jumped 24 percent. The bank also made fewer mortgage loans than in the third quarter.

The bank's shares were down more than 1 percent at $35.02. The S&P 500 financial sector index <.gspf> fell 0.5 percent and the KBW Banks index <.bkx> fell 0.9 percent.

Wells Fargo was the first big U.S. bank to report fourth-quarter results. Bank of America Corp , JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc are due to report next week.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 0.70 points, or 0.01 percent, at 13,471.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 2.56 points, or 0.17 percent, at 1,469.56. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 4.49 points, or 0.14 percent, at 3,117.27.

Keenly watched Friday were also shares of Dow component Boeing , which fell 2.4 percent to $75.25 after a cracked cockpit window and an oil leak on separate flights in Japan added to other mishaps earlier in the week, compounding safety concerns about its new 787 Dreamliner. The US Department of Transportation said the jet would be subject to a review of its critical systems by regulators.

Best Buy shares rallied after its results showed a bit of a turnaround in its U.S. stores, though same-store sales were flat during the key holiday season. Shares jumped 11.4 percent to $13.60.

Basic materials shares were pressured after China's annual consumer inflation rate picked up to a seven-month high, narrowing the scope for the central bank to boost the economy by easing monetary policy. The S&P basic materials sector <.gspm> fell 0.6 percent.

Dendreon Corp shares jumped 15.3 percent to $5.89 after Sanford C. Bernstein upgraded the drugmaker's stock to "outperform" from "market-perform" and said it could be one of the best performers in 2013.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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Extreme Weather Grows in Frequency and Intensity Around World

Menahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Snow blanketed Jerusalem on Thursday, an example of weather extremes that are growing more frequent and intense. More Photos »

WORCESTER, England — Britons may remember 2012 as the year the weather spun off its rails in a chaotic concoction of drought, deluge and flooding, but the unpredictability of it all turns out to have been all too predictable: Around the world, extreme has become the new commonplace.

Especially lately. China is enduring its coldest winter in nearly 30 years. Brazil is in the grip of a dreadful heat spell. Eastern Russia is so freezing — minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit, and counting — that the traffic lights recently stopped working in the city of Yakutsk.

Bush fires are raging across Australia, fueled by a record-shattering heat wave. Pakistan was inundated by unexpected flooding in September. A vicious storm bringing rain, snow and floods just struck the Middle East. And in the United States, scientists confirmed this week what people could have figured out simply by going outside: last year was the hottest since records began.

“Each year we have extreme weather, but it’s unusual to have so many extreme events around the world at once,” said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, in Geneva. “The heat wave in Australia; the flooding in the U.K., and most recently the flooding and extensive snowstorm in the Middle East — it’s already a big year in terms of extreme weather calamity.”

Such events are increasing in intensity as well as frequency, Mr. Baddour said, a sign that climate change is not just about rising temperatures, but also about intense, unpleasant, anomalous weather of all kinds.

Here in Britain, people are used to thinking of rain as the wallpaper on life’s computer screen — an omnipresent, almost comforting background presence. But even the hardiest citizen was rattled by the near-biblical fierceness of the rains that bucketed down, and the floods that followed, three different times in 2012.

Rescuers plucked people by boat from their swamped homes in St. Asaph, North Wales. Whole areas of the country were cut off when roads and train tracks were inundated at Christmas. In Mevagissey, Cornwall, a pub owner closed his business for good after it flooded 11 times in two months.

It was no anomaly: the floods of 2012 followed the floods of 2007 and also the floods of 2009, which all told have resulted in nearly $6.5 billion in insurance payouts. The Met Office, Britain’s weather service, declared 2012 the wettest year in England, and the second-wettest in Britain as a whole, since records began more than 100 years ago. Four of the five wettest years in the last century have come in the past decade (the fifth was in 1954).

The biggest change, said Charles Powell, a spokesman for the Met Office, is the frequency in Britain of “extreme weather events” — defined as rainfall reaching the top 1 percent of the average amount for that time of year. Fifty years ago, such episodes used to happen every 100 days; now they happen every 70 days, he said.

The same thing is true in Australia, where bush fires are raging across Tasmania and the current heat wave has come after two of the country’s wettest years ever. On Tuesday, Sydney experienced its fifth-hottest day since records began in 1910, with the temperature climbing to 108.1 degrees. The first eight days of 2013 were among the 20 hottest on record.

Every decade since the 1950s has been hotter in Australia than the one before, said Mark Stafford Smith, science director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization.

To the north, the extremes have swung the other way, with a band of cold settling across Russia and Northern Europe, bringing thick snow and howling winds to Stockholm, Helsinki and Moscow. (Incongruously, there were also severe snowstorms in Sicily and southern Italy for the first time since World War II; in December, tornadoes and waterspouts struck the Italian coast.)

In Siberia, thousands of people were left without heat when natural gas liquefied in its pipes and water mains burst. Officials canceled bus transportation between cities for fear that roadside breakdowns could lead to deaths from exposure, and motorists were advised not to venture far afield except in columns of two or three cars. In Altai, to the east, traffic officials warned drivers not to use poor-quality diesel, saying that it could become viscous in the cold and clog fuel lines.

Meanwhile, China is enduring its worst winter in recent memory, with frigid temperatures recorded in Harbin, in the northeast. In the western region of Xinjiang, more than 1,000 houses collapsed under a relentless onslaught of snow, while in Inner Mongolia, 180,000 livestock froze to death. The cold has wreaked havoc with crops, sending the price of vegetables soaring.

Way down in South America, energy analysts say that Brazil may face electricity rationing for the first time since 2002, as a heat wave and a lack of rain deplete the reservoirs for hydroelectric plants. The summer has been punishingly hot. The temperature in Rio de Janeiro climbed to 109.8 degrees on Dec. 26, the city’s highest temperature since official records began in 1915.

Reporting was contributed by Jodi Rudoren from Jerusalem; Irit Pazner Garshowitz from Tzur Hadassah, Israel; Fares Akram from Gaza City, Gaza; Ellen Barry and Andrew Roth from Moscow; Ranya Kadri from Amman, Jordan; Dan Levin from Harbin, China; Jim Yardley from New Delhi; Anne Barnard from Beirut, Lebanon; Matt Siegel from Sydney, Australia; Scott Sayare from Paris; and Simon Romero from Rio de Janeiro.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: January 11, 2013

An earlier version of this article misstated part of the name of the organization for which Omar Baddour works. It is the World Meteorological Organization, not the World Meteorological Association. It also misspelled the name of a location in Cornwall, England. It is Mevagissey, not Megavissey.

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Sprint confirms it will launch BlackBerry 10 later this year

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Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow Biggest Oscar Snubs?

By PEOPLE Critic Alynda Wheat

01/10/2013 at 01:05 PM EST

Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow

Fred Duval/Filmmagic; Eric Charbonneau/Wireimage

Today might be the only day any of us will ever feel sorry for Ben Affleck. The nominations for the 85th annual Academy Awards were announced Thursday morning and the Argo director shockingly didn't make the cut.

But here's who did – and who should have:

Best Director

The shock: Two huge snubs! Not only did Argo's Affleck get dissed, even though he had one of the best-reviewed films of the year, but so did Zero Dark Thirty's Kathryn Bigelow, a previous Best Director winner for The Hurt Locker – which I'd argue isn't nearly the accomplishment that Zero Dark Thirty is. Both of the films about terror made the cut for Best Picture, however. But then, that was expected.

What that means: While it's likely a race between Hollywood machers Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) and Ang Lee, whose Life of Pi stormed through with 11 nominations, it's great to see newcomer Benh Zeitlin on the list, whose $1.8 million Beasts of the Southern Wild picked up four nominations. Though their films made strong showings, Amour's Michael Haneke and Silver Linings Playbook's David O. Russell have far less buzz than the buzzed-out Affleck.

Best Actress

The shock: Three former Oscar winners – including two who picked up their golden guys in this very category – couldn't muscle their way in this year. Marion Cotillard, the emotional heart of the gritty romance Rust and Bone, and Helen Mirren, who was the best thing about Hitchcock, playing the great director's wife, Alma, won't be repeating as Best Actress next month. Rachel Weisz, 2006 Best Supporting Actress winner for The Constant Gardener, also didn't get quite enough momentum for her role as a lovelorn judge's wife in the murky period drama The Deep Blue Sea.

What that means: It's likely a three-way battle between the beloved French cinema vet Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), who would be the oldest Best Actress winner at 86 (Oscar Sunday is her birthday), Jessica Chastain, who gave a riveting performance in Zero Dark Thirty, and my personal favorite, Jennifer Lawrence, who showed incredible range and humor in Silver Linings Playbook. Still, Naomi Watts (The Impossible) and the Academy's youngest-ever nominee for Best Actress, 9-year-old Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts), could still take it in a squeaker.

Helen Mirren (left) and Marion Cotillard

Wireimage(2)

Best Actor

The shock: It may not qualify as a "shock" that John Hawkes, truly wonderful in The Sessions, and Jack Black, who did his best work last year in Bernie, didn't get nods. But this was easily the year's toughest category, with brilliant performances from a dozen actors who could have filled the slots.

What that means: I'm still sticking with my prediction that Daniel Day-Lewis will stroll home victorious for his role in Lincoln, which, including his, picked up 12 nominations this morning, the most of any film. If anyone can challenge him, though, it's Hugh Jackman. Les Misérables may have divided critics, but Jackman gives such a well-rounded performance as Jean Valjean, and he's such an inherently likable guy, Academy voters could decide to share the love – particularly since Day-Lewis already has Best Actor bookends. Bradley Cooper impressed in Silver Linings, but given that it's such a tough year for the fellas, I'm betting that he, Denzel Washington (Flight) and Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) will be applauding politely from their seats.

Best Supporting Actor/Actress

The shock: There are no jaw-droppers in either category, though it would've been nice to see Javier Bardem nominated for his deliciously sinister blond baddie in Skyfall.

What that means: Anne Hathaway can stop dreaming her dreams, as she'll likely wake up the morning after the Oscars a winner for Les Mis, while five veteran actors fight it out for Best Supporting Actor. Sentimental love may go toward Alan Arkin, so cuttingly funny as a producer helping in Argo, but truly, it's anyone's game when you've got Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) playing to win again.

Best Picture

The shock: None really. If it still blows your mind that there are nine nominees, then take it as a reflection that last year was such a great one for movies. But yes, in a perfect world Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall and even The Avengers would have found a place on the red carpet.

What that means: If we go by the numbers, then this looks like a showdown between Lincoln (12 nominations) and Life of Pi (11 nominations). But I don't think it's that simple. Life of Pi's nods are largely technical, with no acting notices in the bunch. Silver Linings, though, is a far stronger contender than Pi, with four acting nominations, plus its director and editor (an often overlooked harbinger of Oscar gold) also picked up nods.

And don't count out Les Mis or even Amour, which has real momentum behind it. I would hope that the director snubs haven't knocked Argo and Zero Dark Thirty out of their frontrunner spots, either, but that certainly doesn't bode well for either of them. Like I said, it may seem strange to feel sorry for Affleck on a day his movie gets a Best Picture Oscar nomination, but I do.

We'll all find out the results when the Academy Awards air live Sunday, Feb. 24, on ABC from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

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Retooling Pap test to spot more kinds of cancer

WASHINGTON (AP) — For years, doctors have lamented that there's no Pap test for deadly ovarian cancer. Wednesday, scientists reported encouraging signs that one day, there might be.

Researchers are trying to retool the Pap, a test for cervical cancer that millions of women get, so that it could spot early signs of other gynecologic cancers, too.

How? It turns out that cells can flake off of tumors in the ovaries or the lining of the uterus, and float down to rest in the cervix, where Pap tests are performed. These cells are too rare to recognize under the microscope. But researchers from Johns Hopkins University used some sophisticated DNA testing on the Pap samples to uncover the evidence — gene mutations that show cancer is present.

In a pilot study, they analyzed Pap smears from 46 women who already were diagnosed with either ovarian or endometrial cancer. The new technique found all the endometrial cancers and 41 percent of the ovarian tumors, the team reported Wednesday in the journal Science Translational Medicine.

This is very early-stage research, and women shouldn't expect any change in their routine Paps. It will take years of additional testing to prove if the so-called PapGene technique really could work as a screening tool, used to spot cancer in women who thought they were healthy.

"Now the hard work begins," said Hopkins oncologist Dr. Luis Diaz, whose team is collecting hundreds of additional Pap samples for more study and is exploring ways to enhance the detection of ovarian cancer.

But if it ultimately pans out, "the neat part about this is, the patient won't feel anything different," and the Pap wouldn't be performed differently, Diaz added. The extra work would come in a lab.

The gene-based technique marks a new approach toward cancer screening, and specialists are watching closely.

"This is very encouraging, and it shows great potential," said American Cancer Society genetics expert Michael Melner.

"We are a long way from being able to see any impact on our patients," cautioned Dr. Shannon Westin of the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. She reviewed the research in an accompanying editorial, and said the ovarian cancer detection would need improvement if the test is to work.

But she noted that ovarian cancer has poor survival rates because it's rarely caught early. "If this screening test could identify ovarian cancer at an early stage, there would be a profound impact on patient outcomes and mortality," Westin said.

More than 22,000 U.S. women are diagnosed with ovarian cancer each year, and more than 15,000 die. Symptoms such as pain and bloating seldom are obvious until the cancer is more advanced, and numerous attempts at screening tests have failed.

Endometrial cancer affects about 47,000 women a year, and kills about 8,000. There is no screening test for it either, but most women are diagnosed early because of postmenopausal bleeding.

The Hopkins research piggybacks on one of the most successful cancer screening tools, the Pap, and a newer technology used along with it. With a standard Pap, a little brush scrapes off cells from the cervix, which are stored in a vial to examine for signs of cervical cancer. Today, many women's Paps undergo an additional DNA-based test to see if they harbor the HPV virus, which can spur cervical cancer.

So the Hopkins team, funded largely by cancer advocacy groups, decided to look for DNA evidence of other gynecologic tumors. It developed a method to rapidly screen the Pap samples for those mutations using standard genetics equipment that Diaz said wouldn't add much to the cost of a Pap-plus-HPV test. He said the technique could detect both early-stage and more advanced tumors. Importantly, tests of Paps from 14 healthy women turned up no false alarms.

The endometrial cancers may have been easier to find because cells from those tumors don't have as far to travel as ovarian cancer cells, Diaz said. Researchers will study whether inserting the Pap brush deeper, testing during different times of the menstrual cycle, or other factors might improve detection of ovarian cancer.

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